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These are the intended use-case/justification for one or multiple variable groups. Opportunities are linked to relevant experiment groups. Identifying opportunities helps to provide a structure to map variables against requirements. Each opportunity description will convey why this combination of variables and experiments is important and how they contribute to impact.
| Attribute | Value |
|---|---|
| description | Fire, as the primary form of terrestrial ecosystem disturbance on a global scale, is an important Earth system process. It is regulated by weather, vegetation characteristics, and human activities, and at the same time, it feeds back to them in multiple ways, such as affecting vegetation structure and composition, carbon, nitrogen, water and energy cycles, surface climate, atmospheric circulation and composition, air quality, and human health. With the increasing occurrence of fires, especially the big ones, understanding fire regime changes and their impacts is more critical than ever. Despite its importance, our current understanding of these complex dynamics and cross-sphere feedback remains limited. Currently, most Earth system models (ESMs) incorporate fire modeling. In CMIP6, 19 models submitted outputs of fire variables, and this number is expected to grow in CMIP7. FireMIP data in CMIP7 is designed to enhance our understanding of fire dynamics and the role of fire in the Earth system, as well as the uncertainty. This dataset consists of a number of basic variables and is crucial for several reasons: (1) Analyzing fire regime evolution: The data allows researchers to study how fire patterns have changed from the past to the present and to project future changes under various climate and socio-economic scenarios. This information is vital for long-term environmental planning and policy-making. (2) Improving Earth System Models: By evaluating burned area fraction and biomass burning emissions, FireMIP enables the assessment and improvement of fire simulations in coupled Earth System Models. This leads to more accurate climate predictions and a better understanding of the Earth's complex systems. (3) Advancing scientific understanding: The data quantifies how fires and changes in fire regimes affect ecosystems, climate, and the environment. This helps in understanding the interconnected nature of Earth's systems. By encouraging no-fire and no-fire-change simulations, FireMIP data allows scientists to isolate and study the specific impacts of fire on various Earth system processes, deepening our knowledge of global environmental changes. (4) Informing policy and management: Insights gained from FireMIP data can shape global fire management policies and inform climate change mitigation strategies, contributing to more effective environmental stewardship. |
| expected_impacts | (1) Fire variables (burned area fraction and biomass burning carbon emissions) will be utilized to: a) Analyze historical changes in fire patterns and project future scenarios under various climate and socio-economic conditions, informing long-term environmental planning and policy-making. b) Assess and improve fire simulations in coupled Earth System Models, leading to more accurate climate predictions and a deeper understanding of Earth's complex systems. (2) A comprehensive set of variables including carbon, nitrogen, water, and energy cycle parameters; vegetation distribution and structure; climate indicators (e.g., temperature, precipitation, wind speed, permafrost depth, sea ice and snow coverage fraction, sea surface temperature); and atmospheric circulation, composition, and chemistry will be analyzed to: a) evaluate the skill in modeling the relationship between fire with factors of climate, ecosystems and environment. b) understand the drivers behind changing fire regimes, the impacts of fire and fire changes, and underlying cross-sphere feedbacks between fire and various Earth system components. |
| justification_of_resources | Most variables proposed for FireMIP are regularly used in Earth system modeling and are essential for: (1) Assessing model performance in simulating fire dynamics and Earth system interactions and facilitating meaningful inter-model comparisons. (2) Understanding fire's role in climate change, ecosystem dynamics, and atmospheric composition and quantifying the uncertainties. (3) Informing climate change adaptation and mitigation strategies. The strong overlap between FireMIP variables and existing baseline variables minimizes additional computational costs while providing significant scientific insights. We can provide further details on specific variables as needed during the finalization of the data request. |
| lead_theme | Earth System |
| minimum_ensemble_size | 1 |
| name | Role of fire in the Earth system |
| opportunity_id | 31 |
| data_request_themes | Impacts & Adaptation, Atmosphere, Land & Land-Ice, Ocean & Sea-Ice, Earth System |
| experiment_groups | firemip_deck_subset, firemip_fast-track_subset, picontrol, firemip-nonfasttrack, scenarios, historical |
| mips | FireMIP, PMIP |
| time_subsets | 80ac3156-a698-11ef-914a-613c0433d878 |
| variable_groups | FireMIP_daily, FireMIP_monthly |