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These are the intended use-case/justification for one or multiple variable groups. Opportunities are linked to relevant experiment groups. Identifying opportunities helps to provide a structure to map variables against requirements. Each opportunity description will convey why this combination of variables and experiments is important and how they contribute to impact.
| Attribute | Value |
|---|---|
| description | Polar Amplification is a fundamental fingerprint of anthropogenic climate change that is driving very different responses in the Arctic and Antarctic regions compared to the rest of the globe. While conventional analysis approaches (using monthly mean model outputs) have provided evidence that evolution and characteristics of the sea ice pack are central to Polar Amplification, there still remains uncertainty of the causal mechanisms and pathways through which Polar Amplification occur. For example, we cannot clearly state which processes (clouds, atmospheric heat transport, ocean heat transport, sea ice albedo feedback, etc.) are most important is causing the sea ice loss and thus Polar Amplification. Evidence exists that the processes and feedbacks between the ice pack, the atmosphere, and the ocean that are central to Polar Amplification unfold at high frequency (e.g., days to weeks) and thus the contributions of high frequency variability (atmospheric rivers and cyclones) to the inter-model spread in Polar Amplification cannot be currently assessed. This opportunity provides the necessary model outputs to determine the contribution of high frequency processes to causing Polar Amplification and their contributions to inter-model spread. |
| expected_impacts | Assessment of the structure of atmospheric heat transport events (cyclones and atmospheric rivers) across climate models, analysis of the model differences in the sea ice and ocean response to high frequency atmospheric variability, determination of the high frequency process fingerprints on long-term climate feedbacks. |
| justification_of_resources | The intermodel spread in Polar Amplification is an important source of uncertainty in the future amount of warming that we expect. Moreover, warming that occurs in the polar regions has an outsized effect (with respect to its area) on global sea level rise and changes in the global carbon cycle (via permafrost). Polar climate change also has global implications through modulations of the global thermohaline circulation. The rate of change in the Arctic has implications on the future needs for economic development in the Arctic, geopolitical ramifications (potential future conflict over Arctic natural resources), and adaptation needs. Modeling centers should allocate resources to the assessment of Polar Amplification because of is far reaching impacts on global society and wide spread scientific interest in the topic. |
| lead_theme | Ocean & Sea-Ice |
| minimum_ensemble_size | 1 |
| name | Causality of Polar Amplification |
| opportunity_id | 13 |
| data_request_themes | Atmosphere, Land & Land-Ice, Ocean & Sea-Ice, Earth System |
| experiment_groups | scenarios_extensions, deck, scenarios |
| mips | PMIP, TIPMIP, DAMIP |
| time_subsets | 80ac3156-a698-11ef-914a-613c0433d878 |
| variable_groups | atmospheric_transports, baseline_daily, ocean_mesoscale, seaice_budget_energy_daily, seaice_state_daily_advanced, seaice_state_daily_basic |