Model Intercomparison Project
| Attribute | Value |
|---|---|
| mip_abstract | The What If Modeling Intercomparison Project (WhatIfMIP) is designed to understand the global risks and cascading regional impacts after the future tipping of certain Earth system components. It complements other proposed tipping point explorations that consider spontaneous tipping, while WhatIfMIP imposes tipping to have occurred. • Boreal Forest – Northern Expansion and Southern Dieback • Sahel Greening • Compound Event: Sahel Greening + Boreal Forest – Northern Expansion and Southern Dieback • Amazon Rainforest • Greenland Ice Sheet Collapse • West Antarctic Ice Sheet Collapse • Compound Event: Greenland and Antarctic Ice Sheet Collapses • Boreal Permafrost Collapse Experiments are being designed that assume that this tipping element will have already occurred (‘It’s happened’). The design will allow the CMIP AR7 modeling centers to run these experiments even if they do not have certain Earth system components as interactive in their models, or if mechanisms of tipping do not show the correct sensitivity or interaction mechanisms. WhatIfMIP experiments will be based on the Global Warming Level (GWL) simulations of 2°C and 4°C using the flat10 or 0.2°C /decade emission protocols that are being considered for the CMIP7 Fast Track. The specific GWL will be chosen for each of the WhatIfMIP experiments based on input from the communities of domain experts and the central estimates from review papers on the GWL at which systems are at risk (e.g. Armstrong McKay, 2022). The experimental design of WhatIfMIP complements other MIPs and projects looking at tipping points, filling in experiments not covered elsewhere but considered important for complete risk assessment. |
| mip_long_name | What If Modeling Intercomparison Project |
| mip_website | In development |
| name | WhatIfMIP |
| uid | 527f5c80-8c97-11ef-944e-41a8eb05f654 |