Back to opportunities | Category Index
These are the intended use-case/justification for one or multiple variable groups. Opportunities are linked to relevant experiment groups. Identifying opportunities helps to provide a structure to map variables against requirements. Each opportunity description will convey why this combination of variables and experiments is important and how they contribute to impact.
| Attribute | Value |
|---|---|
| description | Minimum variable set of high frequency, low precision outputs to revolutionise climate impact modelling and climate services Climate services and climate impact modelling are a vital step in the value chain for understanding and managing the risks of a changing climate. The communities that undertake these activities depend on CMIP data outputs as inputs to onward "impact" models (e.g., for energy, water, agriculture, financial services, health). These impact models can be highly complex with non-linear dependences on meteorological properties. Many of these impact models themselves use only a handful of common surface/near-surface variables but require fine-resolution data in both time and space. Hitherto, the availability of such input data from CMIP has been - at best - patchy. This has inhibited impact modelling by requiring compromises on impact model resolution (e.g., use of daily or monthly rather than sub-daily ) and inter-model comparison (e.g., only a few CMIP models providing relevant output), or prevented the application of CMIP simulations in high-quality impact models completely. The proposal is therefore for CMIP models running 'real world' simulations to output a small set of surface/near-surface climate variables at sub-daily (preferably hourly) grid-point resolution to support the provision of climate impact modelling, climate services and climate adaptation across a wide range of topics, including but not limited to infrastructure, energy, finance, health, agriculture & water. It is therefore tressed that while this request is substantial, it is intended to support a wide range of activities and "downstream" impact communities. This opportunity requests data throughout the entire simulation period. However, if high temporal resolution data is difficult to provide for the entire period, this opportunity can be supported with data from the following time subsets: hist72 and histext + whole timeseries (2021-2100): first preference, hist43 and histext + whole timeseries (2021-2100): second preference, hist43 and histext + scenario30mid + scenario20: third preference, hist43 and histext + scenario20mid + scenario20: fourth preference, hist20 and histext + scenario20mid + scenario20: fifth preference. histext is included because the I&A community would like historical data that are as close to the present as possible. |
| desirable_ensemble_size | 10 |
| expected_impacts | Use cases in climate services and impact modelling are many and varied. High frequency data in this requests underpins many different areas of activity (though in some applicaitons additional data may also be required). Examples include: **Power system planning **(design and operation of high-renewables electricity systems for decarbonisation) - uses detailed optimisation models to represent complex internal dynamics. Require minimum hourly resolution. **Sub-daily Extreme Analysis (CORDEX, Climate Services).** **SurgeMIP (storm surge community) **- storm surge**.** **Building energy use modelling.** |
| justification_of_resources | See description. This is to underpin a very wide range of climate service activities in support of climate impact assessment and climate adaptation. The onward modelling often requires higher frequency data than has previously been provided by CMIP creating a substantial barrier to climate service provision. This proposal hopes to overcome this barrier. See, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.joule.2022.05.010 for a detailed discussion in the energy sector, but please note that the Impacts and Adaptation group emerged many demands for hourly data needs across multiple sectors. We feel this request brings together the needs of this disparate community in an efficient and feasible way for the future. |
| lead_theme | Impacts & Adaptation |
| minimum_ensemble_size | 1 |
| name | Core Climate Services |
| notes | I&A author team ask that the cross-thematic steering group be made aware that if hourly is rejected it would still be valuable to have 3hourly versions of the same variables (less good and causes more limitations but would be better than current situation). Note by David Brayshaw, posted by @Briony Turner 16 September 2024 I&A author team have identified the following missing opportunities for I&A -this is our most cover-all opportunity so parking this note here for now, can be shifted post sprint once actions assigned: Sub-daily Extreme Analysis (CORDEX, Climate Services) - came from the mural board (climserv panel) Dynamical Downscaling Opportunity (CORDEX) (from mural board) Dynamical Downscaling including aerosols and chemistry (CORDEX) Statistical Downscaling Opportunity (CORDEX) (from mural board) RCM Emulator opportunity (from mural board) Regional ocean climate-related forcing data (CLIVAR/CORDEX) Underwater Cultural heritage (UCH) risk assessment Inter-Sectoral Impact Model Intercomparison Project - Atmospheric forsings (ISIMIP) 3-hourly atmospheric forcings for ISIMIP New “impact_climserv_core_expt” experiment list means removing the following experiments as they have less relevance to I&A studies: 1pctCO2-bgc, 1pctCO2-rad, abrupt-0p5CO2, abrupt-127k, abrupt-2xCO2, amip-p4k, amip-piForcing, esm-flat10-cdr, esm-flat10-zec, SSPX-SLCF, hist-piAer, hist-piSLCF, piClim-aer, piClim-histaer, piClim-histall, piClim-X. All experiments listed in “impact_climserv_core_expt” requested to provide data throughout entire simulation. Historic experiments (hist* and esm-hist) can use hist72 timeslice. Future scenarios can prioritize period to 2100, with extension beyond this considered much a lower priority. Note that there are comments on the airtable opportunity regarding timeslices “updated time slices for historical experiment” and “scenario time slices” but I cannot read these to check them. Please check and confirm that they match the stated intentions here. The I&A community (these opportunities and others) is interested in time slices that are as close to present as possible. That means updating hist20 to be 2005-2024 (or equivalent) rather than 1995-2014, and hist36 would become hist46 to capture the satellite era (1979-2024). Hist20 and Hist30 would be similar to branch20 and the matching branch30. Let's also introduce hist30 for those who can do 1995-2024 |
| opportunity_id | 20 |
| data_request_themes | Impacts & Adaptation, Atmosphere, Land & Land-Ice, Ocean & Sea-Ice |
| experiment_groups | impact_climserv_core_expt |
| mips | ISIMIP, DCPP, TIPMIP |
| time_subsets | hist20, hist43, hist72, histext, scenario20, scenario20mid, scenario30mid |
| variable_groups | impacts_climserv_hourly_core, impacts_climserv_hourly_expanded |